NFL Waiver Wire Week 1: Top Selections and Pickups to Target

We have finally made it. Football returns this weekend. And after the long summer of training camp news being blown out of proportion and fantasy football drafts getting us excited and ready for some action, we will soon be greeted with the sweet words of “7 hours of Redzone Football starts now” by the great Scott Hanson.

However, one of the great mistakes people make in fantasy football is they draft their team, whether that be in August, or early September, and don’t make any changes beforehand.

There are plenty of players currently in fantasy managers’ leagues unowned, that will have a lot to say on who will be crowned the winner.

And so, without any further ado, here are two players from each position you should be looking to add to rosters. Here are the Waiver Wire Week 1 Selections.

Quarterbacks

Malik Willis – Miami. @ Las Vegas – 41% Owned

Malik Willis has the highest upside of any quarterback on the waiver wire. We do only have a small sample size. However, in 2025 Willis completed 85.7% of his passes for 422 yards on only 35 attempts. That is an absurd 12.1 Yards Per Attempt (YPA). Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) deeper numbers were even more ridiculous:

90.8 PFF passing grade – 3rd

8.3% Big-Time Throw rate – 1st

0.0% Turnover-Worthy Play rate – 1st

12.1 YPA – 1st

94.1% adjusted completion – 1st

9.7-yard aDOT – 5th

That is not sustainable, nor is it something we can expect with the support cast of wide receivers Willis has in Miami. However, there is a reason why Miami wanted him. And gave him a decent sized contract to sign.

Then we get into the rushing yards. Across 2024-2025 Willis averaged 6.2 yards per rush, forced a missed tackle on 26% of attempts, averaged 4.5 yards after contact per attempt and generated 73.2% of his rushing yardage after contact, according to PFF and FantasyPros.

He also averages 5.5 carries per game, and, according to PlayerProfiler recorded 2.25 scrambles and 1.25 red-zone carries per game in 2025. His last meaningful start produced 288 passing yards + 60 rushing yards + two rushing TDs = 31.5 fantasy points.

Willis has finished as a top-seven fantasy QB twice in his last three appearances, with rushing totals of 41, 60 and 73 yards. And it is this, that makes Willis a good bet to finish as a Top-12 fantasy football quarterback in 2026. Add him for free now. Because soon you might not be able to.

Tyler Shough – New Orleans. @ Detroit – 41% Owned

If fantasy managers need someone to specifically start in Week 1, Shough may actually be the safer choice.

His rookie season finished:

221/327 Passing Attempts

67.6% Completion Percentage

2,384 yards Passing Yards

10 TDs

6 INTs

PFF gave him a 74.6 overall grade and 73.1 passing grade, 19th and 17th respectively among qualifying QBs. More importantly, he produced 13 Big-Time Throws against eight Turnover-Worthy Plays and carried a punchy 8.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

There’s sneaky rushing value too. 186 rushing yards and three TDs, including 125 yards specifically on scrambles. PlayerProfiler graded his rushing explosiveness at 94.1, almost league average despite nobody viewing him as a traditional running QB. Expect more rushing upside with Shough, especially in Week 1 against that impressive Detroit Lions defensive front.

Running backs

Jonah Coleman – Denver. @ Kansas City – 34% Owned

This is the player most fantasy managers should be targeting if still available in their leagues. Jonah Coleman’s final Washington Huskies college season was as follows:

145 carries

673 rushing yards

14 rushing TD

32 missed tackles forced

3.30 yards after contact/attempt

16 runs of 10+ yards

30 receptions on 33 targets

344 receiving yards

2 receiving TDs

That last bit matters enormously. PFF gave him a 78.2 receiving grade, which was 16th among 406 college RBs. This is not a running back that needs to leave the field on passing downs.

In one 2025 game alone, PFF charted Coleman with seven runs of 10+ yards and 149 yards after contact.

Sean Payton has compared Coleman’s skill set to J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins has missed games in each of his first six NFL seasons. RJ Harvey can retain the change-of-pace/pass-game work while Coleman is the player best built to absorb Dobbins’ actual rushing workload if anything happens.

Fantasy managers aren’t necessarily starting him Monday. However, you’re buying the path to a meaningful workload before it costs 30% of your Free Agency Acquisition Budget.

Keaton Mitchell – Los Angeles Chargers. Vs Arizona – 42% Owned

Keaton Mitchell is almost the opposite to Coleman. Mitchell could become relevant through ridiculous efficiency, as opposed to volume.

His 2025 rushing line for the Baltimore Ravens was 59 carries for 341 yards and he managed 5.8 Yards per Carry (YPC).

PFF charted:

3.34 yards after contact/attempt

10 missed tackles forced

10 explosive 10+ yard runs

That means 16.9% of his carries went for 10+ yards.

And this isn’t a one-year fluke. He averaged 8.4 YPC as a rookie and sits at roughly 6.3 YPC for his NFL career.

Now put that player into a Mike McDaniel offense. McDaniel personally campaigned for his signing, and Mitchell sits behind Omarion Hampton as the lightning component of the Chargers’ backfield.

There is one concern. Mitchell missed six straight practices with an undisclosed issue. However, he returned to practice Monday. This does significantly improvement to his Week 1 outlook.

This is not a player to start Week 1. However fantasy managers do need to stash him. If McDaniel can manufacture touches for Mitchell, his efficiency profile can become fantasy relevant without 18 carries.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen – Indianapolis. Vs Baltimore – 29% Owned

Keenan Allen’s ownership is far too low. His age has scared people away, but his underlying usage in 2025 remained excellent. According to PlayerProfiler Allen last season managed:

122 targets

81 receptions

777 yards

4 TD

22.6% target share

27.0% targets per route run – which ranked 10th

15 red-zone targets – which ranked 13th

86 first-read targets – which ranked 18th

27.2% first-read target share

That 27% targets per route run (TPPR) number is the one that stands out. Allen wasn’t merely surviving on accumulated snaps. Quarterbacks were still actively looking for him when he ran routes.

And Indianapolis reunites him with Shane Steichen who were together on the Chargers from 2014-2020. This is not an accidental or hopeful signing. This was planned and there will be a role for him

There is a potential future league-discipline issue hanging over him, due to his arrest for a DUI, so this isn’t something that’s a guarantee.

However, he marks a really low risk for a really high reward right now.

Ja’Kobi Lane – Baltimore. @ Indianapolis – 19% Owned

This is the big upside swing I am making from receivers under 20% owned this season. Ja’Kobi Lane’s 2025 USC season produced 49 receptions for 750 yards, which is 15.3 Yards Per Reception, and 4 touchdowns.

But the advanced profile on PFF is more interesting:

81.8 PFF receiving grade

74 targets on 310 routes

12.5-yard aDOT

236 YAC

106.3 passer rating when targeted

49% career contested-target catch rate

At 6-foot-4, Lane gives Baltimore something it doesn’t really have elsewhere. He’s an excellent contested-catch/goal-line receiver with a huge catch radius.

More importantly, the hype isn’t only prospect based. He was reportedly one of the stars of Ravens camp, and there is significant belief he can challenge for the WR2 spot in Declan Doyle’s new offense. He’s only 19% rostered.

Fantasy managers should not wait for the breakout game. The price will go from 1% FAAB to 15-25% overnight if he earns six or seven Lamar Jackson targets and takes one to the house. Buy now, or risk missing out.

Tight Ends

Terrance Ferguson – Los Angeles Rams. Vs San Francisco – 24% Owned

Terrance Ferguson is certainly a player worth taking a chance on. Because although his raw rookie production looks small, with just 25 targets, 11 receptions and 3 touchdowns, he managed 231 yards receiving. That’s 21.0 yards per reception.

PlayerProfiler gave him a 127.9 Explosive Rating, where 100 is league average.

And usage mattered. In the five games where Ferguson received at least three targets, he produced 50+ yards and/or a touchdown four times. He also recorded consecutive double-digit fantasy games when Tyler Higbee was sidelined.

He’s not restricted to traditional inline TE work either. LA can put him in the slot or outside, giving Sean McVay another mismatch weapon alongside Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

That’s exactly the type of TE fantasy managers should want to gamble on. Not someone projected for 4/38 every Sunday, but someone whose underlying role can change dramatically.

Dalton Schultz – Houston. Vs Buffalo – 43% Owned

This is far less exciting pick, but far more safer, especially in a PPR league. Dalton Schultz last year had 106 targets, with 82 receptions for 777 yards.

His advanced opportunity metrics of PlayerProfiler were properly TE1-level:

• 19.2% target share – 10th among TEs
• 21.3% target rate
• 81.1% route participation – 12th
• 497 routes – 6th
• 72 first-read targets – 4th
• 11 red-zone targets
• +29.7 Expected Points Added (EPA) on his targets

Now Houston enters Week 1 without Jayden Higgins for the season and Tank Dell on IR, reducing competition for C.J. Stroud’s intermediate targets.

The problem was touchdowns for Schultz, who only scored three despite 106 targets. That’s why Schultz has more floor than ceiling. He is not someone you can start expecting to chase touchdowns.

If fantasy managers are chasing six targets and a decent PPR floor, Schultz is perfect for this. He won’t lose you weeks. However, he is unlikely to win you many weeks either.

Kickers

Evan McPherson – Cincinnati . Vs Tampa Bay – 42% Owned

Chase McLaughlin – Tampa Bay . @ Cincinnati – 12% Owned

D/STs

Tennessee Vs New York Jets – 13% Owned

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants- 29% Owned

 

If you have enjoyed this and want more information through the week, you can follow my podcast 5 Yard Rush or on X. See you next week